* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 46 48 49 50 47 45 43 43 41 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 46 48 49 50 47 45 43 43 41 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 43 43 42 40 39 38 37 36 34 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 12 9 12 9 11 11 20 18 23 26 28 29 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -5 -4 -3 -5 -2 -5 -5 -3 0 1 2 2 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 10 357 357 1 355 332 329 315 292 273 263 253 264 273 273 280 271 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.3 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 137 132 132 133 129 129 126 134 134 135 138 138 135 139 140 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 57 59 57 58 56 52 50 49 46 45 46 45 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 19 17 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 23 17 10 12 15 13 13 12 5 15 24 15 15 4 -1 -10 200 MB DIV 53 29 0 -5 17 22 35 31 23 14 35 11 4 -14 -18 -28 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -4 -1 0 -2 4 1 4 6 1 1 0 0 3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1339 1214 1089 955 821 574 359 197 160 247 343 327 324 420 604 750 866 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.8 144.0 145.1 146.4 147.7 150.1 152.5 154.9 156.5 158.0 159.5 160.8 162.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 2 2 7 7 5 6 17 15 14 13 10 10 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 12. 10. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 142.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.83 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.4% 15.5% 12.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 2.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.6% 5.6% 4.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% SDCON: 3.0% 10.3% 5.8% 4.2% 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##