* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 08/24/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 40 46 52 56 59 62 62 60 57 59 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 40 46 52 56 59 62 62 60 57 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 35 38 41 43 43 42 39 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 11 7 7 5 7 8 5 1 2 5 3 2 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 1 4 6 6 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 19 19 25 32 25 3 32 8 28 360 205 292 189 273 244 260 5 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.4 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 27.0 26.6 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 140 145 147 149 132 136 136 134 129 126 126 132 128 119 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 70 68 68 66 65 64 64 62 58 55 53 51 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 14 16 17 18 18 20 22 23 22 19 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 2 6 3 3 8 3 -5 -6 -3 -3 -7 1 7 6 -11 200 MB DIV -44 -31 -18 -2 31 53 70 76 56 40 35 47 41 26 6 16 0 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -5 -6 -4 -1 -4 -7 -5 -2 0 1 5 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1013 1026 1058 1097 1159 1295 1461 1636 1812 1979 2130 2243 2115 1990 1875 1749 1634 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.5 118.4 120.6 123.1 125.7 128.2 130.4 132.2 133.7 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 11 18 22 29 2 5 4 4 7 2 1 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 32. 32. 30. 27. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 114.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 08/24/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.88 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 9.9% 7.4% 0.0% 15.4% 16.7% 13.8% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.0% 5.3% 5.7% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 5.1% 2.7% 1.7% .5% 3.6% 3.8% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 08/24/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##