* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 37 36 34 32 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 37 36 34 32 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 41 39 36 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 32 34 35 36 34 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 282 286 277 269 270 269 273 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 144 145 143 147 144 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 37 39 42 45 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 15 14 13 15 5 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -3 -27 -35 -20 -8 15 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 342 432 539 647 763 967 1174 1362 1554 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.3 163.6 164.8 166.1 167.3 169.4 171.5 173.4 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 10 16 18 14 21 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -22. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.4 162.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .5% 0% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/27/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##