* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/28/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 36 35 33 38 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 36 35 33 38 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 33 33 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 41 41 41 42 41 42 36 32 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 0 3 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 280 278 274 274 272 276 285 284 258 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 145 147 148 149 148 148 147 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 44 47 52 59 65 65 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 8 13 17 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 13 12 11 0 1 21 50 72 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -2 5 1 15 3 10 24 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 840 927 1016 1106 1197 1379 1522 1624 1728 1804 1871 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.4 23.4 24.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 169.1 170.0 170.9 171.8 173.6 175.0 176.0 177.0 177.7 178.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 22 31 38 35 27 18 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 3. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -7. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.4 168.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .5% .5% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##