* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/28/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 36 35 33 35 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 36 35 33 35 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 40 36 33 31 32 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 42 42 43 43 42 42 31 25 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -1 0 2 0 0 4 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 276 273 274 275 275 286 280 269 205 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 147 148 148 147 146 146 147 147 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 45 48 53 60 64 67 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 12 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 15 17 11 2 2 17 42 65 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 3 -4 -13 1 15 1 25 36 37 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 1 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 886 976 1066 1156 1247 1409 1542 1613 1676 1759 1869 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.6 170.5 171.4 172.3 173.9 175.2 175.9 176.5 177.2 178.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 19 27 37 36 33 24 18 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 2. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -10. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.6 168.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.0% .5% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##