* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/31/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 48 50 49 44 39 34 30 29 29 29 29 26 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 48 50 49 44 39 34 30 29 29 29 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 41 38 34 28 24 21 19 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 16 15 12 6 1 3 6 10 16 20 24 18 12 7 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -5 -7 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 284 251 231 233 213 199 226 181 132 153 153 180 184 232 311 337 343 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.4 24.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 147 148 148 144 136 131 130 129 133 136 136 127 102 80 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.7 -55.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 68 70 67 65 60 52 49 51 53 59 61 61 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 16 15 15 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 36 46 48 44 40 41 47 15 -6 -32 -54 -40 -24 -69 -123 -156 200 MB DIV 34 30 19 14 10 -1 15 -5 -36 -7 -10 8 16 -12 -19 -23 -6 700-850 TADV 3 8 7 7 5 0 2 5 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 12 14 LAND (KM) 1644 1701 1758 1783 1812 1971 2100 2173 2359 2513 2533 2359 2205 2039 1851 1672 1500 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.6 28.7 30.1 31.6 33.3 34.7 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 176.2 176.8 177.3 177.5 177.7 179.2 180.3 180.5 182.0 183.1 183.8 184.6 185.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 21 21 19 19 12 5 3 1 1 7 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -12. -10. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 17. 12. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 9. 4. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 176.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.4% 13.9% 11.2% 0.0% 19.4% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.5% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 5.2% 3.3% 2.3% 0% 3.2% 3.2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/31/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##