* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 09/01/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 43 41 33 28 23 20 18 18 18 18 17 17 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 43 41 33 28 23 20 18 18 18 18 17 17 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 34 29 24 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 1 5 0 5 7 13 11 15 14 18 11 18 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 2 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 240 288 159 195 238 124 70 131 154 190 195 229 260 284 311 313 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 148 147 145 144 141 131 131 129 128 128 125 130 132 136 136 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -54.7 -54.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 69 67 65 61 58 51 48 47 49 48 48 45 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 37 41 39 34 23 -19 -40 -54 -52 -42 -45 -55 -78 -108 -130 200 MB DIV 5 9 15 1 5 5 -7 -33 -26 -18 10 7 -8 -19 -28 -30 -30 700-850 TADV 8 6 0 1 1 2 4 5 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -9 -16 -2 LAND (KM) 1681 1770 1861 1935 2008 2049 2074 2131 2241 2340 2432 2528 2487 2376 2270 2169 2055 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.7 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.5 27.9 29.4 30.6 31.5 32.2 33.0 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 176.5 177.3 178.1 178.8 179.5 179.8 179.7 179.8 180.5 181.2 181.9 182.6 183.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 8 7 5 5 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 17 17 16 13 9 5 10 4 2 1 1 3 6 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -16. -13. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 18. 13. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.9 176.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.84 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.0% 15.3% 12.5% 10.1% 21.1% 18.8% 12.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.0% 5.1% 4.2% 3.4% 7.1% 6.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 3.5% 3.2% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##