*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  INVEST      AL922024  09/11/24  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    28    29    35    43    53    60    66    72    76    79    81    80    81    84
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    28    29    35    43    53    60    66    72    76    79    81    80    81    84
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    27    28    31    35    42    49    57    64    71    77    81    83    82    83
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     6     4     5     6     3     4     3     3     5     5     7    10    13    16    10     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1    -1    -3    -5     0    -4    -2     0    -2     0     0     0     3     4     1     4
SHEAR DIR        148   127   112    99   116   130    56   211   336   321   343   299   310   301   319   347   355
SST (C)         28.5  28.5  28.6  28.9  29.1  29.1  29.4  29.6  29.6  29.7  29.1  29.2  29.5  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.8
POT. INT. (KT)   145   145   147   151   155   155   159   162   162   163   152   153   158   161   162   160   161
200 MB T (C)   -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     9     9    11    11    12    12    13    13    12    12    11     9    10
700-500 MB RH     57    60    58    56    55    58    57    56    54    54    54    54    57    57    57    60    59
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     5     4     3     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR     9    12    -1   -10   -24   -28   -39   -46   -54   -66   -75   -87   -75   -61   -55   -29   -16
200 MB DIV       -14   -13     1    11     2     3    -1    -4     1   -15     6   -25    13     7    32    11     8
700-850 TADV      -1    -4    -6    -4    -1    -8    -5    -4    -3    -3    -2    -2    -4     1     0     0    -1
LAND (KM)       1295  1236  1121   980   845   599   425   206    64   106   150   250   326   346   354   371   354
LAT (DEG N)     15.3  15.4  15.5  15.7  15.9  16.3  17.0  17.6  18.3  19.2  20.1  20.8  21.4 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     46.6  47.9  49.3  50.7  52.1  54.9  57.6  59.8  61.8  63.4  64.5  65.4  66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    12    13    14    14    14    14    12    10     9     8     6     5     6     4     2     0     1
HEAT CONTENT      39    37    40    71    72    41    44    49    74    83    53    66    88    87    71    66    71

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  520  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  25.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            4.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    8.    9.   10.   11.   12.   13.   13.   14.   15.   15.   16.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.    0.    0.    1.    5.   11.   18.   24.   29.   33.   37.   40.   43.   44.   45.   45.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.    2.    3.    5.    7.    9.   11.   13.   14.   14.   14.   13.   12.   10.   10.   10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    3.    5.    4.    5.    4.    4.    4.    3.    3.    2.    2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -1.   -1.   -0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.   -1.   -1.   -3.   -4.   -7.   -8.  -10.  -11.  -12.  -13.  -14.  -14.  -14.  -14.  -14.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -5.   -5.   -5.   -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -1.    0.    1.    2.    2.    3.    4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -2.   -1.   -0.    0.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.    2.    3.    4.   10.   18.   28.   35.   41.   47.   51.   54.   56.   55.   56.   59.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   15.3    46.6

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922024 INVEST     09/11/24  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.60           3.6
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   11.2     46.9  to    6.8        0.89           2.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   51.8      0.0  to  155.1        0.33           0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   25.9     36.6  to    2.8        0.32           0.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.07           0.1
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.5      2.9  to   -3.0        0.58           0.8
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  113.0    895.4  to  -69.3        0.81           1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   -2.6    -29.7  to  189.2        0.12           0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  122.0     27.0  to  143.0        0.82           0.6
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0    109.2  to    0.0        1.00          -0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   2% is   0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  11% is   1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  14% is   3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     1.7%   16.2%   10.6%    7.7%    0.0%    0.0%   14.4%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.3%   12.0%    6.6%    1.6%    0.6%    7.9%   28.5%   55.6%
    Bayesian:     0.8%   12.2%    4.8%    0.4%    0.2%    4.1%    3.6%    8.3%
   Consensus:     1.9%   13.5%    7.3%    3.2%    0.3%    4.0%   15.5%   21.3%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:      .9%    7.2%    3.6%    1.6%     .1%    2.0%    7.7%   10.6%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922024 INVEST     09/11/24  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922024 INVEST     09/11/2024  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    27    28    29    35    43    53    60    66    72    76    79    81    80    81    84
 18HR AGO           25    24    25    26    27    33    41    51    58    64    70    74    77    79    78    79    82
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    22    23    29    37    47    54    60    66    70    73    75    74    75    78
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    16    22    30    40    47    53    59    63    66    68    67    68    71
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT