* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072024 09/18/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 28 37 50 59 65 69 71 72 68 66 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 28 37 50 59 65 69 71 72 68 66 60 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 20 21 26 32 37 40 44 46 48 48 46 43 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 4 4 6 8 13 11 15 16 16 21 25 30 37 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 74 48 22 30 13 318 259 271 256 281 267 272 276 294 301 316 328 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.5 26.3 25.3 23.4 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 137 137 137 136 135 133 135 137 132 120 112 99 92 93 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 67 69 70 66 59 57 60 62 63 63 63 66 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 12 16 17 18 19 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 65 67 72 72 62 55 31 12 -9 -38 -88 -80 -63 -48 13 200 MB DIV 18 15 32 55 53 70 57 6 -11 6 19 34 20 -1 -37 -32 -40 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 3 12 7 5 1 4 3 5 12 19 39 47 1 LAND (KM) 1361 1387 1438 1491 1557 1746 1988 2209 2376 2268 2053 1791 1566 1537 1744 1192 633 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.7 23.3 24.9 26.2 27.3 28.7 30.8 33.6 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.6 48.3 48.0 47.5 46.1 44.2 42.4 41.1 40.8 40.9 40.7 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 7 8 12 11 10 7 9 12 16 20 22 24 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 22 22 24 18 17 16 18 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 9. 9. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 17. 30. 39. 45. 49. 51. 52. 48. 46. 40. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.8 48.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.2% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 6.6% 12.9% 23.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 4.3% 7.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072024 GORDON 09/18/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072024 GORDON 09/18/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 28 37 50 59 65 69 71 72 68 66 60 58 57 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 27 36 49 58 64 68 70 71 67 65 59 57 56 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 31 44 53 59 63 65 66 62 60 54 52 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT