*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  HELENE      AL092024  09/25/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    66    76    85   100   113   105    88    71    51   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       50    57    66    76    85   100   113    57    36    30    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       50    56    63    71    80    98   111    58    36    29    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         9     9     6     8     8     6    17    37    20    20    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -1     1     1     0    10     2     0     3     1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        244   235   202   183   195   306   222   231   191   279   254   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         31.3  31.4  31.0  30.8  30.9  30.5  29.6  27.0  23.2  21.4  21.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   171   170   170   171   172   174   166   127    94    84    83   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.2 -49.6 -48.3 -47.8 -48.2 -49.8 -50.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.5   0.8   0.9   1.1   1.4   1.9   2.1   0.6   0.4   0.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     7     7     5     1     0     0     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     78    79    79    79    78    69    58    56    43    45    45   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    20    23    27    30    31    34    40    34    26    21    14  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    85    95   101   108   111   123   151   162   148   118    82   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV       101   104    77   129   131    81    64   110    70     6   -10   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -2     0     1     1     6    27    54    81     0     4     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        202   121    43    53   120   299    89  -324  -655  -818  -840   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     19.8  20.3  20.9  21.7  22.5  25.0  29.1  33.6  36.8  38.1  38.1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     85.3  85.8  86.4  86.4  86.4  85.5  84.3  84.1  85.8  87.9  90.1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     8     8    11    17    22    19    14     9     9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT     112    97    68    52    51    62    25     5     5     5     6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  9      CX,CY:  -7/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  659  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):           71.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    8.    9.   10.   11.   12.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.    2.    2.    3.    4.    6.    7.    7.    7.    6.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.    1.    2.    2.    4.    6.    4.    3.    4.    3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.    0.    0.    0.    1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.    0.    1.    2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  PERSISTENCE            2.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -6.   -6.   -6.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -4.   -4.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     1.    3.    6.    7.   10.   18.   14.    4.   -4.  -15.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    3.    3.    4.    4.    4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    1.    2.    2.    3.    3.    3.    3.    2.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    2.    4.    4.    4.    3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.    1.    0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    3.    2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL           3.    7.   12.   18.   27.   27.   21.   12.    4.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.   16.   26.   36.   50.   63.   55.   38.   21.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   50. LAT, LON:   19.8    85.3

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE     09/25/24  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   10.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.72          12.6
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   16.3     46.9  to    6.8        0.76           6.8
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   76.0      0.0  to  155.1        0.49           3.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   21.7     36.6  to    2.8        0.44           3.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   50.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.72           3.3
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.8      2.9  to   -3.0        0.35           1.3
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   46.4    895.4  to  -69.3        0.88           3.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :  108.4    -29.7  to  189.2        0.63           2.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  120.7     27.0  to  143.0        0.81           1.8
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0    109.2  to    0.0        1.00          -0.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  57% is   5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  38% is   5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  42% is   9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  39% is   8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     7.6%   56.9%   38.0%   22.3%    7.9%   41.6%   39.4%   20.6%
    Logistic:    17.0%   48.9%   29.7%   17.4%    6.7%   12.8%    8.5%    0.1%
    Bayesian:    11.4%   10.8%    3.9%    5.6%    4.0%    4.6%    1.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    12.0%   38.9%   23.9%   15.1%    6.2%   19.7%   16.3%    6.9%
       DTOPS:    16.0%   72.0%   43.0%   38.0%   15.0%   94.0%   88.0%    1.0%
       SDCON:    14.0%   55.4%   33.4%   26.5%   10.6%   56.8%   52.1%    3.9%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE     09/25/24  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE     09/25/2024  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      3(  3)      10( 13)      22( 32)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       1(  1)       2(  3)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  50    57    66    76    85   100   113    57    36    30    28   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO           50    49    58    68    77    92   105    49    28    22    20   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO           50    47    46    56    65    80    93    37    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           50    44    41    40    49    64    77    21   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT