* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL092024 09/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 37 30 15 11 23 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -6 -1 1 -3 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 212 197 210 240 239 235 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 22.7 21.5 22.1 21.5 22.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 90 83 82 80 87 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -47.6 -47.7 -48.3 -48.9 -49.6 -50.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 55 48 46 47 51 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 36 30 26 20 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 176 175 184 184 173 150 119 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 144 130 62 17 -5 1 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 59 85 9 -2 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -300 -491 -679 -652 -629 -659 -636 -621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.6 36.7 36.6 36.4 36.6 36.4 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.8 86.3 87.0 87.7 86.9 87.0 85.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 17 10 6 1 1 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 30 CX,CY: 0/ 30 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -15. -21. -24. -22. -14. -11. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -6. -10. -16. -26. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -15. -20. -27. -30. -29. -36. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.4 83.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -75.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092024 HELENE 09/27/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092024 HELENE 09/27/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT