* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL112024 09/29/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 18 21 21 15 21 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 6 3 3 8 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 222 219 227 249 246 255 262 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 158 159 159 157 158 159 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 48 50 46 46 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 3 8 8 1 9 0 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -4 9 4 8 46 5 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 2 3 2 3 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1511 1468 1427 1425 1424 1454 1510 1609 1739 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.4 24.2 25.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.3 48.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 49.0 48.6 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 33 33 33 33 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 47.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.31 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.72 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.5% 5.4% 4.3% 2.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.1% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 1.5% .9% .7% .4% 1.2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112024 JOYCE 09/29/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 34 34 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT