*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  KIRK        AL122024  10/06/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND   100    96    93    89    84    73    54    33    18   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND      100    96    93    89    84    73    54    33    18   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM      100    96    91    87    83    72    58    44    37    33    30    30   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        20    24    27    29    29    40    43    42    47    42    36    32   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     9     6     4     6    12     6     8     4     3     3     4    15   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        242   228   222   222   222   228   247   255   260   252   216   177   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         28.1  27.8  27.3  26.7  26.0  24.0  22.5  21.6  19.3  17.9   5.2   5.2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   141   137   131   125   118   103    95    93    85    80    69    69   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   1.0   1.3   2.0   1.8   1.9   1.8   0.7   0.9   0.5   0.6   1.0   0.6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       6     4     3     2     1     0     0     1     1     0     0     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     63    70    73    73    70    67    55    45    50    55    64    72   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    44    45    45    45    47    48    44    36    31    27    28    25  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    31    57    80    93   120   100   133   176   222   184   195   144   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        93    88   118   143   173   153    33    14     6    18    25     3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      79    66    50    40    21     2   -42   -81   -80    45     2   -60   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)       1829  1637  1452  1308  1192  1246  1581  1259   455   126  -181   -70   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     30.4  32.3  34.1  35.9  37.7  40.8  43.1  44.0  45.0  46.7  49.3  53.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     49.7  49.0  48.3  46.7  45.1  39.8  33.4  24.8  14.2   4.7  -3.6 -11.2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    18    19    20    22    24    26    29    35    36    32    30    31   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT       8     4     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  5/ 17      CX,CY:   1/ 17
  T-12 MAX WIND: 105            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  658  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            0.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    8.    9.   10.   11.   12.   13.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.   -1.   -2.   -4.  -10.  -20.  -31.  -41.  -51.  -53.  -49.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -3.   -7.  -11.  -14.  -21.  -24.  -23.  -22.  -15.   -8.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -4.   -6.   -8.   -8.   -7.   -7.   -7.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    4.    5.    6.    6.    7.    7.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  PERSISTENCE           -1.   -2.   -2.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -2.   -2.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -6.   -7.   -7.   -6.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.    0.    0.    1.    2.   -3.  -13.  -21.  -29.  -30.  -36.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    3.    4.    5.    5.    6.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    1.    2.    2.    4.    3.    3.    3.    2.    1.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.    0.    1.    1.    3.    3.    1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    3.    2.    2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -3.   -2.   -1.    1.    2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -4.   -7.  -11.  -15.  -27.  -46.  -67.  -82.  -90.  -84.  -79.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):  100. LAT, LON:   30.4    49.7

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK       10/06/24  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   -5.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.54         999.0
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   41.7     46.9  to    6.8        0.13         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :    3.6      0.0  to  155.1        0.02         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :    9.9     36.6  to    2.8        0.79         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :  100.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.49         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.1      2.9  to   -3.0        0.47         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  295.4    895.4  to  -69.3        0.62         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :  123.0    -29.7  to  189.2        0.70         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   18.3     27.0  to  143.0        0.00           0.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    7.0    109.2  to    0.0        0.94         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   3% is   0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     3.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.0%    0.5%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.2%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.4%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:      .7%     .1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK       10/06/24  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK       10/06/2024  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)    22     14( 33)       9( 39)       4( 41)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100    96    93    89    84    73    54    33    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO          100    99    96    92    87    76    57    36    21   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO          100    97    96    92    87    76    57    36    21   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO          100    94    91    90    85    74    55    34    19   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW          100    91    85    82    81    70    51    30    15   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN  6HR          100    96    87    81    78    71    52    31    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  IN 12HR          100    96    93    84    78    74    55    34    19   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS