*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  FIFTEEN     AL152024  10/18/24  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    39    45    50    56    57   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       30    34    39    45    50    33    29   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       30    33    36    39    42    31    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         6     9     8     5     5     8     7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -2    -2    -2    -1     0    -2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        213   216   230   247   206   175   158   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         30.2  30.2  30.2  30.2  30.0  29.0  28.9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   170   170   171   171   170   153   152   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.2  -0.2  -0.2  -0.2   0.2   0.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     6     6     7     5     6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     75    76    75    76    76    79    79   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    12    14    17    17    14    10  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    55    72    73    74    66    50    39   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        83    96   110   103    76    20    52   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       0    -3    -1    -1     0     8     3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        173   171   165   107     7  -137  -126   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     17.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     84.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     6     8     8     9    11    13    14   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      69    67    65    65    60     4    12   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  6      CX,CY:  -4/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  471  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):           33.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    8.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   -0.   -0.    0.    4.   10.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    7.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  PERSISTENCE            1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -5.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.    1.    2.    3.    1.   -4.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    1.    1.    2.    2.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.    3.    5.    7.   10.   10.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.    9.   15.   20.   26.   27.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   17.5    84.6

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152024 FIFTEEN    10/18/24  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    5.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.66           9.0
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   13.1     46.9  to    6.8        0.84           5.9
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   65.2      0.0  to  155.1        0.42           2.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   15.9     36.6  to    2.8        0.61           3.3
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   30.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.20           0.7
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.9      2.9  to   -3.0        0.34           1.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   75.0    895.4  to  -69.3        0.85           2.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   93.6    -29.7  to  189.2        0.56           1.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  133.9     27.0  to  143.0        0.92           1.6
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0    109.2  to    0.0        1.00          -0.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   5% is   1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  44% is   4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  28% is   4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  18% is   4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  22% is   4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  50% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     5.2%   44.4%   28.0%    9.9%    6.8%   18.2%   22.4%   50.1%
    Logistic:    10.7%   55.6%   30.0%   16.1%   10.9%   34.7%   61.2%   84.7%
    Bayesian:     4.7%   38.6%   13.2%    7.4%    3.7%   17.8%   27.7%   87.1%
   Consensus:     6.8%   46.2%   23.7%   11.1%    7.1%   23.6%   37.1%   74.0%
       DTOPS:     2.0%    4.0%    1.0%    1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:     4.4%   25.1%   12.3%    6.0%    3.5%   11.8%   18.5%   37.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152024 FIFTEEN    10/18/24  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152024 FIFTEEN    10/18/2024  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    34    39    45    50    33    29   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO           30    29    34    40    45    28    24   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO           30    27    26    32    37    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    25   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT