* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 42 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 42 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 32 33 33 34 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 11 7 3 5 3 2 6 8 11 15 15 13 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 -6 -3 -3 -5 -5 -1 -6 -7 -7 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 122 123 127 127 125 9 83 168 190 193 169 158 153 132 132 94 94 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 143 145 145 147 149 151 151 150 151 149 146 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 59 60 56 51 51 51 52 53 57 59 62 64 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -25 -14 -4 4 7 1 -11 -26 -32 -33 -32 -6 3 11 17 200 MB DIV 77 55 25 0 -5 -40 -29 -45 -11 -13 30 65 41 6 -5 -10 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 3 4 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1076 1079 1079 1088 1082 1057 1023 959 869 749 672 656 695 780 844 874 871 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.2 13.2 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 110.9 110.9 110.9 110.8 110.4 109.8 109.0 108.3 107.4 106.7 106.4 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 5 3 1 4 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 25 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 17. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 110.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.8% 2.7% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.7% 5.3% 0.2% 0.4% 5.9% 5.7% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##