* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL812025 03/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 71 65 60 50 40 34 33 32 36 41 45 52 62 67 71 V (KT) LAND 80 78 71 65 53 41 32 26 24 24 28 32 37 43 54 59 63 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 77 71 58 43 37 33 29 27 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 38 37 36 30 31 30 29 28 17 10 16 20 15 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 2 0 1 -1 -6 -1 8 5 0 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 219 224 220 223 227 229 237 219 214 228 200 171 158 157 206 275 266 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.7 27.8 26.0 27.3 28.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 140 147 134 113 127 147 141 151 148 150 148 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 39 40 38 40 45 47 47 42 40 44 47 47 48 44 44 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 27 13 5 -1 -10 11 23 21 7 0 -2 -12 -13 -2 14 200 MB DIV 44 26 -8 -24 -49 6 41 9 -37 -13 15 43 -13 -20 -22 -22 -13 700-850 TADV 9 11 12 13 12 3 -1 -6 -2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 161 189 197 104 -18 36 174 294 423 538 695 792 922 1061 1198 1298 1390 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.6 81.5 82.6 83.8 86.0 87.9 89.5 91.4 93.5 95.7 98.1 100.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 10 11 11 10 8 9 11 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 20 15 4 4 5 14 23 23 26 26 28 29 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -19. -23. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -39. -37. -34. -31. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -9. -15. -20. -30. -40. -46. -47. -48. -44. -39. -35. -28. -18. -13. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 11.0 80.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL812025 GSTEST 03/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL812025 GSTEST 03/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL812025 GSTEST 03/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 71 65 53 41 32 26 24 24 28 32 37 43 54 59 63 18HR AGO 80 79 72 66 54 42 33 27 25 25 29 33 38 44 55 60 64 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 58 46 37 31 29 29 33 37 42 48 59 64 68 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 58 46 37 31 29 29 33 37 42 48 59 64 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT