* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GSTEST AL842025 04/23/25 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 56 52 44 37 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 56 52 44 37 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 65 67 64 60 56 48 42 37 34 31 27 23 20 18 18 20 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 43 46 48 47 45 48 54 58 60 68 69 69 46 20 21 20 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 -3 -6 -7 -9 -1 2 5 10 19
SHEAR DIR 260 264 264 265 264 256 255 255 261 274 274 280 287 270 244 245 267
SST (C) 23.6 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.4 21.1 21.3 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.0 20.9 18.8 17.1 13.0 13.1
POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 90 90 87 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 85 81 79 74 71
200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.7 -58.4 -58.2 -58.6 -58.7 -59.4 -60.1 -59.6 -59.1 -58.6 -58.9 -60.5 -62.0 -62.2 -61.7 -59.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 46 48 55 55 53 50 43 39 41 47 40 31 35 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -10 -24 -28 -39 -41 -34 -50 -71 -99 -106 -78 -4 5 -70 20
200 MB DIV 6 4 24 37 65 4 31 16 7 -61 19 3 53 17 43 2 13
700-850 TADV 11 17 11 11 10 5 3 0 -6 -10 -3 -4 25 36 44 3 24
LAND (KM) 1226 1279 1319 1367 1438 1546 1557 1604 1700 1830 1873 1797 1554 1238 1126 1513 1189
LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.3 31.5 32.1 32.2 31.5 30.5 30.0 30.7 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 56.9 57.0 57.4 57.7 57.7 56.7 54.9 52.5 50.3 48.9 49.2 49.6 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 5 2 7 17 28 35 34 25
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. -20. -18. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. -45. -48. -49. -46. -43. -39. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. 9. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -13. -21. -28. -34. -40. -46. -51. -53. -51. -44. -36. -30. -25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.8 56.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL842025 GSTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.12 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL842025 GSTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL842025 GSTEST 04/23/2025 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 60 56 52 44 37 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 65 64 60 56 52 44 37 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 53 45 38 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 43 36 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT