* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CPTEST CP812025 04/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 49 45 42 34 27 23 28 45 66 94 113 129 134 145 142 V (KT) LAND 60 56 49 45 42 34 27 23 28 45 66 94 113 129 45 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 58 53 49 41 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 43 37 33 18 8 23 29 29 20 23 33 30 46 43 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -4 -3 1 0 -1 -3 -3 4 9 8 4 -5 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 295 289 282 275 288 343 338 328 305 273 231 224 241 267 280 293 286 SST (C) 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.0 19.5 18.1 16.3 14.3 11.1 9.2 8.4 9.3 10.9 10.7 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 73 73 74 73 73 70 60 62 64 66 67 68 68 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.8 -58.2 -58.1 -58.4 -59.1 -60.0 -60.0 -59.0 -58.2 -57.6 -57.8 -58.3 -58.7 -57.6 -56.9 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 52 52 51 53 54 65 70 71 68 69 73 72 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 148 148 144 134 122 103 58 26 30 41 30 11 0 1 5 6 1 200 MB DIV 12 34 71 13 20 -10 37 27 46 74 58 57 53 25 10 -17 -6 700-850 TADV -7 -3 1 5 5 2 4 3 2 -18 -28 -29 -32 50 42 3 -15 LAND (KM) 963 956 963 985 1007 1041 1108 1184 1305 1606 1763 1495 755 72 -353 -749 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 29.0 30.4 31.9 33.8 36.6 40.6 44.9 48.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.4 167.4 167.5 167.6 167.6 167.0 166.1 164.6 161.8 157.6 152.5 146.3 138.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 3 4 7 9 12 18 26 30 33 33 27 23 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -16. -22. -31. -39. -42. -34. -20. -3. 20. 37. 54. 67. 95. 113. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 10. 15. 17. 18. 20. 26. 31. 33. 26. 12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -15. -18. -26. -33. -37. -32. -15. 6. 34. 53. 69. 74. 85. 82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.6 167.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP812025 CPTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP812025 CPTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##