* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPTEST EP812025 04/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 76 69 60 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 76 69 60 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 80 73 65 50 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 27 32 34 35 36 39 36 38 49 56 60 62 65 71 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 7 6 6 14 14 18 15 10 5 10 12 10 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 304 297 293 290 295 286 272 283 274 278 275 274 264 258 250 249 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 139 141 141 138 138 132 132 132 131 128 127 122 110 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 60 60 60 57 58 56 61 62 64 61 61 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -26 -24 -27 -27 -19 -9 -9 -6 0 3 -3 0 -7 -10 -20 -21 200 MB DIV 25 44 41 29 16 2 4 -25 7 -11 -5 62 46 53 53 60 78 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 2 3 -1 -3 -9 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2326 2359 2399 2460 2533 2665 2795 2748 2608 2496 2367 2220 2075 1929 1849 1834 1861 LAT (DEG N) 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.8 9.7 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.4 124.4 125.5 126.6 128.8 130.8 132.5 133.8 134.8 135.8 136.8 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 32 30 27 21 18 17 16 15 13 10 9 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -3. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -13. -20. -34. -45. -56. -62. -66. -72. -81. -88. -91. -87. -79. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -11. -20. -39. -56. -72. -82. -87. -95. -106. -115. -119. -118. -115. -112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 5.9 122.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP812025 EPTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP812025 EPTEST 04/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##