* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL842025 04/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 58 50 42 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 58 50 42 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 67 61 55 46 38 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 58 60 65 74 73 77 87 92 94 95 88 85 95 96 100 99 95 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -11 -14 -16 -16 -17 -13 -12 -18 -13 -12 -18 -20 -19 -16 -6 SHEAR DIR 263 265 264 266 265 264 267 269 272 273 281 279 283 278 274 263 260 SST (C) 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 90 91 93 92 94 95 93 93 94 98 97 95 96 100 100 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.9 -57.4 -57.9 -57.1 -57.0 -56.7 -57.3 -57.1 -56.6 -55.9 -56.2 -55.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 56 59 61 57 53 46 45 48 54 55 58 64 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 -3 -17 -17 -17 -53 -57 -64 -61 -70 -47 -35 -18 -7 17 0 200 MB DIV 36 27 15 46 55 59 42 20 7 -11 -9 -1 -17 -27 19 14 -11 700-850 TADV 6 10 4 7 4 -4 -6 -13 -7 -10 -1 -3 -2 -3 5 4 9 LAND (KM) 1167 1187 1207 1227 1247 1292 1344 1413 1484 1522 1524 1537 1606 1604 1578 1588 1665 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 6 2 2 5 5 3 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -28. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -20. -27. -39. -52. -64. -77. -86. -93. -96. -99. -103. -107. -115. -129. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -12. -20. -28. -41. -54. -67. -81. -93. -102. -107. -110. -113. -115. -123. -136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.6 57.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 72.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 58 50 42 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 61 53 45 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 50 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 52 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT