* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CPTEST CP812025 04/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 47 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 52 48 40 33 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 14 8 13 22 37 22 24 25 16 9 9 32 52 75 73 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 -2 3 0 -2 -6 -18 -27 -21 -21 SHEAR DIR 282 291 326 330 355 341 306 289 313 328 348 277 254 257 254 255 261 SST (C) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.4 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 71 76 78 79 83 100 106 114 120 120 120 124 127 126 125 128 130 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -58.7 -58.6 -58.5 -59.0 -58.1 -58.2 -57.2 -55.6 -54.5 -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 51 50 44 35 29 30 33 34 34 33 30 31 30 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 124 118 90 62 35 -11 -46 -62 -67 -52 -44 -27 -37 -20 -26 -19 200 MB DIV 38 50 69 42 32 -10 -37 -35 -50 -50 -53 -25 -18 5 9 41 54 700-850 TADV 8 4 6 6 6 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -7 0 -1 LAND (KM) 940 895 850 825 801 735 713 755 812 851 862 895 982 1048 1117 1186 1283 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 3 5 6 6 7 5 2 2 5 5 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -4. -10. -15. -19. -25. -29. -33. -34. -36. -38. -40. -41. -42. -41. -40. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 0. -9. -20. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -0. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -27. -36. -44. -50. -52. -57. -60. -65. -72. -80. -88. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.5 166.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP812025 CPTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP812025 CPTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##