* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPTEST EP812025 04/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 94 90 80 67 56 52 49 44 38 34 34 34 39 45 V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 94 90 80 67 56 52 49 44 38 34 34 34 39 45 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 95 91 85 71 58 46 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 13 15 19 25 28 26 25 26 28 30 29 38 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 4 3 1 0 -1 0 1 4 4 7 9 7 20 25 SHEAR DIR 251 301 305 294 294 265 291 303 302 294 295 293 270 258 264 285 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 154 151 151 143 146 145 145 141 139 143 142 137 137 139 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 54 54 56 62 63 63 61 57 56 56 54 56 59 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 1 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -2 3 3 6 -1 -3 0 6 -2 -2 -14 -9 -14 -4 -3 200 MB DIV -31 3 1 34 58 50 24 30 5 8 4 4 6 7 36 35 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1654 1699 1745 1781 1828 2070 2338 2571 2765 2841 2813 2896 2747 2574 2483 2407 2298 LAT (DEG N) 5.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 11 13 14 17 16 12 14 12 5 4 11 13 9 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 35 34 33 26 30 33 32 28 27 24 25 28 33 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 11. 10. 7. 2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -29. -33. -37. -39. -45. -49. -50. -48. -41. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 11. 13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 4. 0. -10. -23. -34. -38. -41. -46. -52. -56. -56. -56. -51. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 5.5 111.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP812025 EPTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.22 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 506.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.11 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.2% 20.7% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.3% 12.9% 17.7% 9.7% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 8.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.7% 12.1% 11.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP812025 EPTEST 04/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##