* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL842025 04/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 64 53 45 32 28 26 22 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 64 53 45 32 28 26 22 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 80 74 66 59 49 42 38 37 36 33 31 28 24 18 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 60 63 70 67 60 58 45 38 44 56 41 62 80 89 44 48 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -8 -9 -5 3 -2 0 2 -4 -2 -7 -13 -22 -2 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 263 257 250 250 260 268 276 262 255 256 250 254 260 264 270 257 SST (C) 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 21.3 21.3 22.1 22.9 22.5 23.1 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 88 89 89 89 88 89 83 82 86 89 87 91 95 92 93 98 113 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 -57.7 -58.6 -59.2 -60.2 -59.3 -58.1 -58.5 -59.6 -59.1 -57.7 -57.2 -58.4 -57.7 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 3 2 3 3 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 49 47 39 34 41 57 57 53 45 51 45 36 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 -20 -24 -28 -62 -81 -70 -31 -24 -4 -5 3 -9 -20 -26 -13 200 MB DIV 14 7 35 53 39 16 -9 -16 49 14 30 -8 14 -22 -49 -59 -49 700-850 TADV 19 10 10 7 8 4 18 17 12 8 -1 -3 -4 -7 -13 -19 -9 LAND (KM) 1274 1255 1238 1272 1310 1248 1284 1272 1009 982 1143 1139 885 860 984 937 672 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 6 5 9 8 6 7 4 5 7 8 3 3 10 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -23. -28. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -41. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -17. -26. -32. -43. -47. -47. -49. -49. -48. -48. -50. -54. -51. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -16. -27. -35. -48. -52. -54. -58. -64. -65. -67. -68. -69. -66. -67. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.4 57.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 73.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL842025 GSTEST 04/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 64 53 45 32 28 26 22 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 68 57 49 36 32 30 26 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 65 57 44 40 38 34 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 62 49 45 43 39 33 32 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT