* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CPTEST CP812025 04/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 58 55 46 35 27 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 58 55 46 35 27 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 64 61 58 49 39 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 24 27 46 63 57 32 19 31 48 44 37 35 37 15 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -4 -2 -5 -6 -7 0 0 -1 1 3 16 -1 -7 3 9 SHEAR DIR 316 319 301 302 286 284 295 311 305 282 276 302 315 282 287 295 263 SST (C) 21.5 22.5 23.7 24.4 25.6 25.7 25.1 24.0 23.1 24.3 24.9 25.1 24.7 25.2 25.6 23.4 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 75 88 101 109 120 119 115 105 93 108 113 117 113 115 118 103 70 200 MB T (C) -59.0 -58.7 -57.9 -57.5 -56.7 -56.5 -57.2 -59.4 -59.7 -58.7 -57.4 -55.4 -53.2 -55.0 -56.1 -58.6 -60.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 3 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 49 43 41 39 52 59 51 39 36 34 19 15 17 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 3 2 3 4 6 6 9 850 MB ENV VOR 116 111 67 23 -14 -45 -64 -32 -16 -31 -29 -7 2 -16 -11 -26 -143 200 MB DIV 55 59 32 23 10 -35 -25 -9 21 0 20 -28 -67 -60 -29 -55 19 700-850 TADV 1 5 6 9 9 8 6 8 15 9 1 2 -3 -16 -9 -23 17 LAND (KM) 891 749 609 439 287 83 21 400 670 602 445 238 215 233 198 543 1486 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 13 15 17 12 8 13 16 10 16 12 17 20 9 7 31 43 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. -34. -35. -35. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -5. -5. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -20. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -13. -13. -12. -9. -6. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -19. -30. -38. -44. -47. -58. -65. -70. -74. -77. -80. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.5 165.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP812025 CPTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP812025 CPTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##