* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPTEST EP812025 04/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 102 97 88 76 64 56 52 43 33 25 21 21 25 26 V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 102 97 88 76 64 56 52 43 33 25 21 21 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 106 102 96 83 70 57 44 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 10 21 24 27 30 39 39 43 43 39 48 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 9 5 2 1 7 4 1 1 7 6 8 11 9 6 SHEAR DIR 309 342 348 327 318 290 276 284 294 291 297 291 281 266 251 259 251 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 153 154 154 153 151 148 142 140 137 138 135 135 132 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 56 54 53 55 53 57 58 56 56 53 54 57 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -6 -11 -12 -18 -16 -9 -12 -5 -5 -10 -13 -13 -15 -18 -19 200 MB DIV -26 1 29 31 31 44 27 30 33 49 1 -41 -12 31 56 98 83 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 1 1 3 1 3 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1436 1451 1469 1513 1563 1638 1781 1846 1930 2021 2091 2207 2350 2510 2676 2525 2148 LAT (DEG N) 6.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 8 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 41 40 39 37 33 31 27 25 25 22 15 13 13 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -34. -41. -47. -51. -49. -44. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 11. 7. 3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 2. -3. -12. -24. -36. -44. -48. -57. -67. -75. -79. -79. -75. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 6.4 108.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP812025 EPTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.9% 11.2% 17.7% 10.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 4.0% 5.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP812025 EPTEST 04/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##