* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME EP822025 05/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 73 67 56 46 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 73 67 56 46 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 78 72 59 46 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 20 25 25 35 42 38 34 29 17 24 19 14 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 1 3 4 0 -7 -2 7 12 17 1 3 1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 226 245 246 245 244 267 286 301 301 281 298 276 283 305 294 255 229 SST (C) 30.4 29.7 28.9 29.2 28.4 27.3 27.3 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.4 24.0 23.7 23.8 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 163 155 158 150 138 137 104 100 98 94 93 101 98 99 96 93 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 59 58 57 55 51 44 41 38 40 37 33 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 0 -7 -13 -32 -36 -43 -45 -56 -70 -74 -62 -55 -51 -62 -68 200 MB DIV -1 -7 13 8 23 50 32 16 -21 -45 -47 -63 -30 -40 -17 -1 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 3 1 -1 5 -1 7 5 11 11 14 8 9 4 LAND (KM) 656 661 677 734 790 942 998 1042 1081 1098 1105 1154 1252 1366 1484 1568 1592 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.6 106.8 108.2 109.6 112.2 114.5 116.5 117.8 118.7 119.2 119.9 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 3 3 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 57 55 49 39 32 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -7. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -35. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -30. -28. -24. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -7. -9. -10. -7. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 3. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -29. -39. -51. -62. -71. -80. -87. -92. -93. -91. -89. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 12.4 104.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP822025 NONAME 05/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.33 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.27 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.42 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.82 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 14.7% 10.4% 8.4% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.0% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP822025 NONAME 05/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##