* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ALVIN EP012025 05/30/25 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 55 54 51 40 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 54 55 54 51 40 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 54 50 38 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 15 18 23 31 28 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 2 -2 -7 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 182 180 187 176 189 191 205 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.0 24.3 23.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 140 133 122 105 100 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 54 50 46 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 18 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 28 26 19 9 -1 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 128 115 97 57 40 19 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 6 6 10 11 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 501 471 459 425 394 326 167 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 20.1 21.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.1 108.6 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.3 109.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 20 11 6 4 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 1. -10. -22. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 107.6
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012025 ALVIN 05/30/25 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.47 4.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.15 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.27 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 30.6% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.4% 10.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 6.7% 5.8% 3.8% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012025 ALVIN 05/30/25 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##