* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 40 49 52 52 49 46 44 40 35 31 27 22 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 40 49 52 52 49 46 44 40 35 31 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 32 32 31 29 27 24 22 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 5 7 12 17 30 23 22 13 2 2 4 8 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 10 12 11 7 9 7 SHEAR DIR 51 52 44 59 84 89 62 82 72 71 65 113 315 151 171 179 187 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.5 23.8 24.8 24.1 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 159 158 155 149 135 126 120 118 101 111 104 111 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 73 75 78 79 80 79 75 72 66 58 50 48 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 28 48 55 61 64 41 22 11 39 55 75 68 81 64 58 200 MB DIV 92 56 61 61 75 66 106 131 119 85 76 72 37 6 3 -5 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -10 -8 -11 -11 -8 2 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 919 927 936 949 964 956 957 880 766 638 567 598 619 798 1020 1214 1333 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.6 13.7 15.1 16.5 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.6 107.2 108.2 109.1 109.3 109.1 109.0 109.4 110.8 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 49 50 51 52 49 43 33 20 9 3 1 0 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. 35. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -11. -9. -6. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 32. 32. 29. 26. 24. 21. 15. 11. 7. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 105.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 11.6% 3.4% 1.8% 0.5% 7.4% 9.9% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##