* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 44 44 42 40 37 34 30 26 22 18 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 44 44 42 40 37 34 30 26 22 18 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 9 12 15 29 33 24 15 10 7 4 9 10 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -7 1 0 6 10 10 11 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 52 52 67 95 91 78 75 79 73 72 41 57 165 124 108 118 156 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.9 27.7 26.8 26.0 25.0 24.6 24.8 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 159 154 151 139 131 122 113 109 111 104 109 115 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 74 76 78 81 80 79 74 67 58 50 44 39 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 47 51 64 67 57 22 12 33 46 78 78 88 80 65 62 200 MB DIV 59 70 77 77 92 83 137 130 53 53 72 37 8 5 -28 -33 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -7 -12 -10 -17 -10 0 5 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 946 948 957 973 968 948 913 807 651 538 559 567 677 881 1105 1289 1405 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.7 16.2 17.3 18.1 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.7 109.2 109.0 108.7 108.8 109.9 111.8 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 8 7 9 10 11 11 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 50 51 51 50 46 38 24 11 5 2 1 1 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 33. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -13. -15. -15. -13. -11. -9. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. 14. 10. 6. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 105.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 11.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 4.6% 5.8% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##