* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 45 55 67 77 81 74 70 62 54 48 45 43 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 45 55 67 77 81 74 70 62 54 48 45 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 40 49 59 70 73 64 49 38 30 24 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 8 10 12 10 4 2 3 0 5 9 13 12 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -4 0 5 6 9 10 12 15 10 8 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 359 24 58 49 38 36 67 60 140 180 195 59 66 78 53 75 89 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.3 29.7 29.1 27.6 23.1 22.7 23.8 24.1 25.2 26.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 170 171 170 168 163 157 141 94 91 103 106 116 127 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 6 5 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 83 82 78 71 65 63 60 51 44 42 43 41 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 12 15 18 19 16 16 13 10 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 15 9 18 24 42 64 59 69 81 96 106 78 66 52 44 200 MB DIV 86 112 106 97 84 107 125 81 33 27 30 3 15 29 -13 -51 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -1 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 520 488 465 424 386 303 225 149 151 326 363 629 966 1279 1513 1658 1701 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.9 14.2 15.7 17.3 19.1 20.0 20.0 19.3 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.6 98.2 98.8 99.4 100.8 102.3 104.3 106.5 108.8 111.6 114.7 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 14 13 12 14 16 15 13 9 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 44 46 47 42 30 18 8 1 0 0 0 1 5 13 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 12. 11. 7. 3. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 25. 37. 47. 51. 44. 40. 32. 24. 18. 15. 13. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.73 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -6.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 45.3% 35.3% 22.9% 0.0% 41.0% 56.7% 53.7% Logistic: 1.5% 15.3% 6.2% 3.1% 0.8% 15.5% 33.3% 12.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 17.2% 12.3% 3.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 10.5% Consensus: 5.5% 25.9% 17.9% 9.9% 0.5% 18.9% 30.0% 25.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##