* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 34 40 52 63 67 65 60 54 48 45 41 36 29 23 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 34 40 52 63 67 65 60 54 48 45 41 36 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 41 42 41 39 36 34 31 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 7 11 16 17 24 23 20 32 28 15 7 5 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 1 4 0 -2 0 1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 51 35 79 66 49 82 77 68 68 59 75 76 82 119 116 168 172 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.8 26.7 25.5 24.0 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 158 157 156 149 148 144 145 140 141 129 116 101 101 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 73 75 78 78 77 72 71 67 68 62 58 49 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 12 12 14 16 16 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 52 57 50 67 88 82 60 34 13 39 46 67 66 67 54 200 MB DIV 78 91 99 78 76 79 90 115 70 23 42 17 37 25 8 -6 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 -8 -4 -3 -2 -20 -15 -8 -9 2 3 LAND (KM) 939 953 984 1013 1027 1035 1016 1027 1027 1016 919 768 680 607 566 605 707 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.9 13.5 14.0 13.9 14.2 15.3 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.9 111.7 112.4 112.8 112.6 111.7 110.8 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 1 3 6 7 6 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 51 50 48 45 37 30 24 25 24 18 8 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37. 39. 38. 37. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -12. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 32. 43. 47. 45. 40. 34. 28. 25. 21. 16. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 106.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 34.4% 16.8% 8.4% 2.2% 14.1% 31.4% 32.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 1.7% 11.9% 5.8% 2.9% 0.8% 4.7% 10.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##