* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 43 52 60 63 59 53 48 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 43 52 60 63 59 53 48 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 49 49 45 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 12 13 19 14 17 15 12 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 11 3 15 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 94 67 63 68 85 86 79 124 105 91 25 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 26.6 24.3 23.6 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 157 158 150 147 144 144 128 104 95 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 74 75 77 75 75 69 59 56 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 54 48 53 79 87 85 73 55 64 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 92 87 68 69 87 79 88 19 44 29 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -6 -6 -5 -7 -5 15 5 -11 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1042 1043 1050 1041 1033 1024 1018 982 904 766 596 526 568 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 7 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 49 49 48 46 38 24 14 7 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 27. 35. 38. 34. 28. 23. 18. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 108.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.43 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 42.4% 30.1% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 27.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 43.9% 22.5% 12.5% 5.2% 10.0% 13.3% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 29.0% 17.6% 4.2% 1.7% 12.5% 13.7% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING