* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 41 47 60 68 74 76 71 61 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 41 47 60 68 74 76 71 61 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 53 57 57 50 41 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 7 5 8 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 1 3 2 2 4 7 11 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 2 18 29 24 45 19 6 21 155 162 119 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.8 28.8 27.7 26.0 24.1 22.4 23.2 23.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 164 163 163 153 142 123 103 85 92 96 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 80 78 72 66 62 59 53 51 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 14 13 17 19 18 16 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 9 27 26 38 54 40 53 53 79 74 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 67 57 95 93 118 108 50 34 43 6 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -5 -6 -9 -10 -8 -6 1 3 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 337 338 319 312 281 246 273 398 413 471 575 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 9 10 11 11 9 9 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 45 45 42 38 27 13 6 2 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 16. 12. 9. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 17. 30. 38. 44. 46. 41. 31. 23. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 98.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 25.1% 18.8% 15.7% 0.0% 25.2% 22.3% 15.7% Logistic: 2.8% 21.8% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 15.1% 34.7% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.2% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% Consensus: 4.8% 19.0% 10.6% 6.9% 0.5% 13.7% 19.2% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING