* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/11/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 28 39 54 65 74 78 79 75 67 63 59 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 21 28 39 54 65 74 78 79 75 67 63 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 20 21 24 28 32 38 43 44 41 36 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 15 17 14 16 16 13 11 13 10 12 9 6 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 3 1 1 0 4 1 0 1 4 0 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 15 19 30 47 49 66 63 75 85 71 72 29 37 41 52 33 1 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.5 25.8 23.9 24.2 25.4 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 159 160 160 161 162 158 154 151 123 103 106 116 109 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 4 2 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 81 83 83 83 84 84 86 85 85 81 74 67 65 57 58 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 13 16 20 22 25 28 29 29 27 25 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 32 45 51 71 88 100 88 101 104 94 93 76 103 95 78 200 MB DIV 18 61 82 81 115 150 151 143 104 82 81 59 34 14 -10 -13 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 1 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 -2 -11 -16 -12 -6 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 718 708 687 657 614 540 444 317 219 195 192 307 530 699 908 1027 1017 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.9 11.9 13.4 14.9 16.1 17.2 18.0 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.9 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.9 99.0 100.5 102.4 104.8 107.5 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 4 8 10 11 12 13 15 15 13 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 31 33 36 41 43 36 29 17 7 2 1 2 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 42. 42. 42. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 26. 23. 19. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 19. 34. 45. 54. 58. 59. 55. 47. 43. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 96.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/11/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 2.7% 5.6% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/11/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##