* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/11/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 20 22 27 35 43 46 46 45 44 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 20 22 27 35 43 46 46 45 44 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 23 21 18 11 12 8 12 11 5 7 10 12 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 2 0 0 7 7 1 1 3 10 7 2 -1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 19 40 43 50 56 25 31 41 348 357 293 331 192 140 101 76 50 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.2 29.2 29.5 28.5 26.7 24.6 23.5 25.9 25.6 25.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 158 159 161 167 157 161 151 133 111 99 122 116 114 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 8 5 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 84 83 85 83 84 80 79 69 66 63 59 61 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 32 43 51 62 86 93 99 90 106 90 99 104 114 115 82 47 200 MB DIV 57 88 90 121 145 170 158 141 99 53 38 36 44 -1 6 0 -20 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -6 -8 -12 3 -8 -9 -25 -11 9 7 5 -7 LAND (KM) 708 691 671 640 605 518 399 288 181 169 224 474 663 911 1045 1029 898 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.3 11.1 12.4 13.9 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.1 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.5 97.5 98.1 99.4 101.0 103.3 106.2 109.5 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 5 9 10 12 13 16 16 15 10 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 31 32 33 37 42 41 33 25 11 3 2 3 9 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 38. 40. 42. 42. 41. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 26. 26. 25. 24. 20. 17. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 97.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/11/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 2.4% 8.6% 19.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 2.9% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0% 1.6% .6% 0% 0% .4% 1.9% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/11/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##