* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/12/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 33 43 56 68 79 79 73 69 57 49 43 37 31 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 33 43 56 68 79 79 73 69 57 49 43 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 30 36 43 45 43 38 32 28 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 23 18 17 13 13 6 17 19 22 22 18 11 8 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 0 3 1 3 3 0 2 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 50 46 66 72 63 66 69 64 63 55 51 46 55 68 66 69 70 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.8 28.1 26.9 25.7 25.6 25.3 24.1 24.1 24.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 159 161 161 157 153 146 134 122 120 116 102 102 104 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 88 88 87 87 87 85 81 80 72 67 63 56 56 52 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 17 20 22 27 28 27 27 22 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 50 53 61 66 87 81 85 87 90 97 116 105 81 60 59 200 MB DIV 110 130 134 149 143 148 146 99 65 48 37 23 -22 -32 -21 1 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 0 0 -6 -5 -2 -5 -5 -15 -11 -16 -11 -4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 591 564 530 515 500 449 371 329 326 406 624 766 954 1091 1174 1214 1243 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.1 16.8 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.8 99.9 100.3 101.2 102.8 105.1 107.6 110.5 113.4 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 3 2 3 5 8 11 13 13 14 13 10 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 42 43 44 46 45 34 25 11 6 3 3 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. 38. 37. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 26. 28. 25. 24. 16. 12. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 36. 48. 59. 59. 53. 49. 37. 29. 23. 17. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 99.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -13.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4.4% 33.7% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 9.8% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 11.4% 12.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 4.1% 1.6% .5% 0% 1.7% 8.2% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##