* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/12/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 58 71 81 78 72 64 52 42 34 29 24 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 58 71 81 78 72 64 52 42 34 29 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 57 57 52 44 36 30 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 17 16 15 16 16 17 18 22 22 19 12 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -3 0 0 3 -1 1 1 0 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 72 68 57 55 75 86 64 75 73 66 65 63 71 83 97 94 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.3 27.0 25.5 24.9 26.3 24.9 23.7 23.7 23.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 161 162 158 156 148 135 120 114 127 111 97 98 98 90 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 6 5 5 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 86 87 85 83 80 75 71 66 59 58 56 55 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 15 17 19 23 28 31 29 28 27 23 19 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 55 61 65 94 87 106 105 92 96 96 108 94 76 66 71 200 MB DIV 109 124 146 167 155 168 107 94 71 77 52 29 -18 -41 -11 38 18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 -14 -12 -8 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 564 540 525 494 470 359 273 203 221 402 604 799 983 1074 1121 1118 1121 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.6 14.9 16.4 17.5 18.0 17.7 16.9 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.9 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.6 101.7 103.4 105.8 108.6 111.6 114.2 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 5 7 10 12 13 14 14 11 8 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 44 45 45 44 35 26 12 5 3 2 4 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 17. 26. 26. 25. 22. 15. 9. 5. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 33. 46. 56. 53. 47. 39. 27. 17. 9. 4. -1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 99.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -12.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.85 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.8% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 26.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 5.0% 17.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% Consensus: 0.1% 9.7% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 10.0% 15.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% 12.0% 2.0% SDCON: .5% 12.3% 5.7% 1.1% .5% 8.5% 13.5% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##