* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERICK EP052025 06/18/25 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 73 75 76 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 73 75 76 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 70 73 77 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 7 11 12 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -6 -5 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 346 100 89 103 69 116 276 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 158 161 162 162 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 86 84 84 84 85 84 83 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 49 62 73 78 91 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 103 135 162 147 111 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -7 -9 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 312 246 187 127 92 8 -60 -120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.1 16.5 17.9 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.6 96.2 96.8 97.4 99.0 100.9 102.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 31 31 32 34 38 34 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 18. 20. 21. 22. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 95.1
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 ERICK 06/18/25 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 18.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 16.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.94 22.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -24.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 17.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 17.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 12.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 3.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 5.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 -0.6
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 17.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 83% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 95.0% 88.3% 85.6% 72.5% 82.5% 67.0% 54.1%
Logistic: 39.8% 75.1% 56.9% 50.6% 49.2% 46.2% 41.0% 9.6%
Bayesian: 41.6% 74.7% 81.8% 62.6% 37.7% 79.2% 60.0% 23.8%
Consensus: 41.5% 81.6% 75.7% 66.3% 53.1% 69.3% 56.0% 29.2%
DTOPS: 28.0% 79.0% 71.0% 64.0% 66.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 34.7% 80.3% 73.3% 65.1% 59.5% 38.6% 28.0% 14.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 ERICK 06/18/25 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##