* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 28 33 39 47 54 58 58 60 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 28 33 39 47 54 58 58 46 33 29 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 23 24 27 31 34 37 32 28 27 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 7 16 18 12 15 16 10 12 11 2 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 2 2 2 2 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 79 89 108 118 110 95 82 49 19 29 2 345 357 301 290 276 9 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.7 29.8 29.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 147 148 147 146 148 154 157 159 163 163 173 165 160 153 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 76 76 78 81 82 86 85 85 87 88 84 81 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 20 20 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 64 54 40 36 31 13 22 0 12 23 31 43 55 64 87 74 86 200 MB DIV 84 48 12 11 23 57 55 105 106 158 139 127 99 104 92 27 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 511 508 509 505 511 527 573 631 596 520 427 283 82 -67 -165 -7 75 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.2 10.0 10.3 11.1 12.2 14.0 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.5 93.9 94.2 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.5 99.5 100.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 6 6 9 12 13 13 14 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 26 31 37 39 38 23 16 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 41. 43. 44. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -0. 4. 8. 11. 8. 10. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 33. 35. 36. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 93.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.37 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 3.6% 0.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.6% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 5.9% 4.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##