* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 33 41 46 51 55 57 61 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 33 41 46 51 55 57 61 42 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 35 35 36 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 8 5 14 15 15 20 18 23 11 6 16 19 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 1 -1 1 0 0 -3 -1 2 3 2 -1 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 86 101 121 132 108 88 69 48 30 24 19 32 357 254 267 271 278 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.6 30.9 29.9 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 152 154 153 155 157 155 159 160 159 162 172 165 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 5 6 5 9 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 75 74 75 75 77 80 81 84 87 91 86 85 81 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 10 11 14 17 17 18 17 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 22 11 4 -16 -26 -19 -6 -5 5 39 45 62 54 58 63 200 MB DIV 39 -7 -6 15 26 60 60 113 141 133 100 86 100 105 66 51 9 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -7 -5 -1 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 544 557 583 576 562 589 663 717 742 687 564 329 81 -131 -302 -228 -193 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.4 9.9 9.6 9.5 10.1 11.4 13.8 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.6 96.0 96.5 97.2 98.1 98.8 99.4 99.7 100.0 100.3 100.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 3 2 5 10 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 25 27 28 27 28 30 32 37 40 38 18 13 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 28. 33. 38. 41. 44. 45. 46. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 5. 8. 7. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 32. 36. 34. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 94.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.54 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 5.9% 5.7% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 3.8% 2.5% .1% 0% 2.9% 2.8% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##