* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 34 40 47 53 59 59 59 59 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 34 40 47 53 59 59 47 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 6 9 15 23 19 25 17 13 4 12 16 17 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 -2 -1 2 5 8 0 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 100 116 143 83 94 79 64 53 35 10 2 44 231 250 261 304 266 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.6 30.0 29.8 30.5 29.4 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 151 152 151 155 154 156 162 162 166 164 171 160 167 165 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 75 76 76 77 79 80 82 87 90 90 86 84 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 9 13 15 17 15 12 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 29 18 12 4 -7 -24 -30 -21 -1 0 32 42 59 73 64 80 35 200 MB DIV -6 -11 31 37 52 44 69 124 163 165 160 134 109 113 47 48 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 -8 -5 1 2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 566 595 611 596 596 638 704 749 734 626 426 186 -85 -242 -323 -230 -231 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.5 10.5 12.5 15.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.4 95.8 96.3 96.7 97.5 98.4 98.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 5 3 2 3 8 12 13 12 12 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 25 26 27 27 28 29 32 40 39 26 15 13 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 28. 33. 38. 41. 44. 45. 45. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -15. -13. -11. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 6. 9. 5. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 9. 15. 22. 28. 34. 34. 34. 34. 33. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 94.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 18.2% 5.6% 2.6% 0.6% 4.5% 2.9% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 10.5% 5.3% 0.9% 0.2% 6.5% 5.6% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .2% 6.2% 3.1% .4% .1% 3.2% 3.3% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##