* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 52 53 54 51 52 53 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 52 53 54 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 14 17 20 18 22 17 16 4 0 13 15 13 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 6 5 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 99 118 72 78 76 74 57 41 35 15 8 276 230 251 268 302 314 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.7 30.1 29.9 30.4 29.6 30.0 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 151 151 152 155 157 160 159 162 167 164 170 162 166 168 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.9 -51.9 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 76 78 79 82 81 86 91 91 90 89 85 82 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 13 14 12 10 6 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 7 -7 -16 -22 -27 -26 -14 0 17 42 51 73 70 70 66 36 200 MB DIV -13 26 34 50 66 71 96 139 162 152 146 130 135 75 42 13 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 3 3 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 606 631 619 607 608 642 669 674 610 491 302 93 -95 -207 -238 -142 -149 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.6 11.7 13.6 15.8 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.8 96.2 96.6 96.9 97.7 98.3 98.8 98.9 98.9 99.1 99.4 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 4 8 11 11 10 12 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 39 41 25 15 15 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 44. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. -10. -9. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 3. 0. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 27. 28. 29. 26. 27. 28. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 95.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.5% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 6.4% 6.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 5.2% 2.9% .1% 0% 3.2% 3.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##