* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 44 53 61 66 57 57 56 58 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 44 53 61 66 51 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 41 35 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 11 14 16 17 18 15 6 4 14 12 7 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 66 90 88 72 65 55 45 49 21 2 65 194 217 215 243 279 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 153 153 156 160 159 160 160 168 170 166 164 166 168 164 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.7 -51.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 4 6 4 8 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 78 80 81 81 83 84 87 88 89 89 89 86 82 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 12 14 15 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -10 -12 -22 -30 -19 -10 22 39 50 64 66 67 53 29 18 200 MB DIV 30 10 19 27 34 67 103 136 146 133 148 154 100 68 20 7 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -7 0 5 1 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 580 576 589 585 597 604 597 560 475 338 143 -23 -194 -201 -193 -290 -394 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.2 12.2 13.7 15.7 17.7 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.3 96.9 97.9 98.8 99.4 99.8 100.2 100.6 101.2 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 7 9 11 11 12 11 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 26 27 28 31 35 39 40 38 30 19 17 9 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 41. 42. 43. 44. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -4. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 28. 36. 41. 33. 32. 31. 33. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 95.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 6.2% 6.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##