* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912025 06/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 30 29 28 31 35 38 40 44 48 V (KT) LAND 25 29 29 29 30 28 27 27 27 27 29 33 36 40 42 45 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 29 29 26 26 27 27 27 29 29 29 30 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 18 16 18 25 24 24 19 10 9 9 7 9 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 2 0 3 0 1 2 5 9 1 0 1 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 259 247 262 255 254 265 276 289 267 265 226 124 140 97 113 112 116 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.9 28.4 28.2 28.0 29.2 30.0 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 140 135 142 139 136 154 169 171 170 169 167 167 168 169 170 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 9 8 8 5 6 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 81 79 80 79 81 79 80 76 75 72 71 70 71 67 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 26 29 32 39 60 90 103 120 106 92 60 64 43 40 27 200 MB DIV 91 60 27 44 60 73 55 62 62 58 78 61 40 13 -1 5 1 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -12 -10 -3 -12 -5 -10 -7 -7 -3 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) -92 19 44 90 94 -29 -152 -310 -288 -73 94 209 260 283 349 337 323 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.6 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.7 92.8 93.8 94.9 96.9 98.8 100.6 102.4 104.5 106.4 107.7 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 4 2 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 24 19 20 22 12 2 10 13 19 19 8 6 5 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 19. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 90.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 06/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 10.9% 6.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 12.3% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9% 2.8% 3.4% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% Consensus: 1.1% 7.8% 4.2% 2.4% 0.3% 0.9% 3.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 06/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 06/27/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 29 29 30 28 27 27 27 27 29 33 36 40 42 45 50 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 28 31 35 37 40 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 20 19 19 19 19 21 25 28 32 34 37 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT