* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 34 40 50 58 69 73 76 72 75 73 73 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 34 40 50 58 69 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 42 46 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 12 8 8 16 12 4 4 13 10 14 13 9 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 91 89 94 87 74 10 26 15 332 264 218 258 257 304 281 307 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.4 29.7 30.2 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.5 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 161 158 161 167 168 167 166 170 165 169 168 164 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 80 83 85 86 83 87 86 87 84 87 86 85 81 79 73 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 8 11 11 13 12 13 8 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 27 34 19 18 26 36 47 42 78 80 98 65 70 42 53 23 200 MB DIV 22 17 61 92 90 135 146 119 121 134 99 85 33 34 6 25 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 456 421 425 447 435 377 288 174 27 -112 -218 -237 -172 -171 -186 -218 -243 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.4 14.7 16.4 18.1 19.9 21.6 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.5 94.8 95.2 95.8 97.0 98.1 98.7 99.4 100.3 101.5 102.9 104.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 27 28 30 35 38 40 38 24 19 15 8 9 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 41. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 25. 33. 44. 48. 51. 47. 50. 48. 48. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 94.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 25.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 23.4% 7.1% 3.6% 2.8% 16.5% 54.4% 42.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 7.2% 34.9% Consensus: 0.5% 15.4% 7.4% 1.2% 0.9% 13.8% 29.2% 25.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .2% 9.7% 4.7% 1.1% .4% 7.4% 15.1% 13.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##