* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912025 06/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 27 28 28 28 28 32 37 41 43 48 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 27 27 30 34 39 43 45 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 29 30 30 32 35 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 17 20 24 23 18 16 14 17 8 4 9 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 2 0 0 0 -1 2 2 0 -1 -1 2 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 246 254 247 248 255 273 279 281 264 199 179 150 116 108 123 154 156 SST (C) 28.9 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.9 27.9 28.1 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 141 135 141 150 135 138 169 171 171 170 168 167 168 169 170 169 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 9 9 7 9 6 8 4 5 3 4 2 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 80 81 82 79 81 77 75 72 74 73 70 64 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 32 48 52 82 90 125 109 97 78 68 46 27 12 0 200 MB DIV 71 45 47 77 92 55 64 61 42 66 68 55 23 26 -10 5 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -11 -8 -4 -5 -6 -9 -8 -8 -4 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 14 31 87 87 46 -93 -232 -363 -197 -19 122 216 217 168 110 7 35 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.4 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.7 93.7 94.8 95.8 97.8 99.6 101.3 103.3 105.1 106.6 107.6 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 6 4 2 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 20 22 20 6 2 18 16 22 18 10 7 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 91.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 06/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.3% 8.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 12.6% 5.5% 2.7% 1.0% 5.2% 5.0% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.7% 4.7% 2.9% 0.3% 1.7% 4.2% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.4% .1% .8% 2.1% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 06/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 06/28/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 27 27 30 34 39 43 45 49 53 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 23 24 25 25 25 28 32 37 41 43 47 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 20 21 22 22 22 25 29 34 38 40 44 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT