* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 49 58 66 68 63 63 65 63 64 67 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 49 58 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 6 5 10 12 9 4 4 10 15 14 12 17 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 -2 -2 -4 3 -2 -3 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 95 99 91 95 35 22 10 12 44 274 261 268 282 289 298 297 309 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 156 158 158 159 162 167 168 165 170 167 169 168 168 166 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 4 8 6 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 83 84 86 85 87 88 85 86 86 86 86 86 83 79 73 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 11 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 27 30 36 43 44 44 67 67 78 72 41 28 -1 -9 -15 200 MB DIV 34 61 96 106 130 142 130 115 137 104 86 32 38 5 19 -5 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 10 4 6 7 10 15 LAND (KM) 379 377 393 371 341 283 199 101 -49 -174 -303 -259 -275 -342 -445 -553 -651 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.6 17.2 18.9 20.7 22.6 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.8 95.2 95.7 96.3 97.5 98.4 99.0 99.7 100.5 101.6 103.0 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 31 33 36 39 43 30 23 18 16 10 9 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 36. 39. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 24. 33. 41. 43. 38. 38. 40. 38. 39. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 94.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 27.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 15.6% 5.8% 3.1% 1.4% 16.8% 40.1% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 30.5% Consensus: 0.3% 14.4% 8.1% 1.2% 0.5% 13.7% 23.0% 17.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% SDCON: .6% 9.2% 5.0% 1.1% .2% 7.3% 12.5% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##