* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 64 74 83 77 75 73 73 71 68 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 64 74 83 45 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 59 68 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 8 8 4 4 1 2 11 4 10 6 5 10 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -6 -5 -3 -1 -4 0 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 98 90 68 30 37 3 355 198 9 187 223 275 308 252 243 261 268 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.1 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 157 159 160 163 165 167 165 169 166 170 169 164 160 157 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.5 -52.1 -51.1 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 5 7 5 7 5 7 4 6 4 7 4 9 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 84 85 85 85 86 85 86 83 82 78 77 73 70 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 9 10 13 14 17 13 12 10 10 8 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 32 39 39 57 68 75 73 97 85 75 52 43 43 8 16 200 MB DIV 65 70 100 112 118 128 115 139 113 96 72 41 28 4 3 5 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 1 3 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 300 263 255 241 217 179 125 51 0 -122 -81 -52 -104 -188 -248 -360 -409 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.7 18.0 19.6 21.4 23.1 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.3 99.0 99.9 100.8 102.0 103.1 104.4 105.6 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 9 9 8 8 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 36 37 38 40 40 38 29 18 19 14 11 6 6 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 35. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 39. 49. 58. 52. 50. 48. 48. 46. 43. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.80 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 41.5% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 34.8% 63.4% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 60.8% 39.9% 28.4% 20.5% 64.1% 87.9% 57.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 29.8% 19.6% 6.3% 1.4% 25.9% 30.5% 65.5% Consensus: 4.0% 44.0% 27.5% 11.6% 7.3% 41.6% 60.6% 41.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% 42.0% SDCON: 2.5% 27.5% 16.2% 6.3% 3.6% 22.8% 35.3% 41.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##