* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912025 06/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 32 33 30 31 30 31 34 39 43 45 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 26 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 39 42 44 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 26 26 27 27 29 28 28 28 29 30 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 26 24 24 28 24 16 20 12 9 1 2 6 7 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 -2 2 -1 1 1 0 0 7 4 3 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 251 262 280 280 270 283 267 273 218 201 207 357 122 140 173 146 178 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 142 147 140 147 150 167 171 171 170 169 169 169 170 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 6 7 4 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 78 80 77 74 72 71 67 65 62 58 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 30 39 39 72 81 96 111 103 61 45 33 41 31 33 31 200 MB DIV 87 78 70 61 66 65 48 36 52 44 37 30 2 12 -8 13 27 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -11 -5 -5 -9 -6 -4 2 2 -3 -6 -4 -3 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 93 97 59 7 -48 -207 -378 -207 -46 120 147 102 89 152 185 249 302 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.8 95.9 96.9 97.8 99.7 101.5 103.4 105.2 107.1 108.4 109.4 110.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 5 4 5 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 15 9 6 13 17 17 15 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 6. 5. 6. 9. 14. 18. 20. 24. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 93.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 06/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.47 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.69 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 11.2% 7.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 13.7% 6.3% 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 3.1% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% Consensus: 1.6% 8.4% 4.5% 3.0% 0.6% 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.7% 2.2% 1.5% .3% .6% 1.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 06/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 06/28/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 26 27 27 27 27 29 30 33 39 42 44 48 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 24 25 25 25 25 27 28 31 37 40 42 46 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 19 20 20 20 20 22 23 26 32 35 37 41 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT