* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 57 66 77 78 75 71 67 59 51 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 57 66 77 78 75 71 67 59 51 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 40 50 61 68 70 67 61 52 43 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 7 4 4 3 8 14 10 7 5 4 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -6 2 -2 -6 0 4 2 1 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 42 39 41 37 13 78 79 122 117 102 86 110 151 128 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.1 28.4 26.3 26.1 24.7 23.0 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 157 165 163 157 155 148 126 123 108 90 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 3 1 2 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 84 85 84 85 85 84 83 78 75 68 65 59 56 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 8 9 9 12 11 16 15 15 15 16 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 16 33 48 60 84 77 86 65 57 44 41 43 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 89 94 97 121 121 115 91 78 115 70 18 -10 -2 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 288 300 327 307 278 208 179 161 167 226 239 94 106 116 127 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 39 39 35 31 23 15 8 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 26. 24. 22. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 32. 41. 52. 53. 50. 46. 42. 34. 26. 19. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 98.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.82 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 41.9% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 38.0% 64.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 52.0% 32.3% 22.3% 13.9% 60.9% 78.7% 24.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 13.0% 10.1% 3.3% 0.4% 12.2% 10.9% 20.9% Consensus: 1.9% 35.6% 22.0% 8.5% 4.7% 37.0% 51.3% 15.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% 7.0% 22.0% SDCON: 1.4% 23.8% 13.5% 4.7% 2.3% 22.0% 29.1% 18.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##